Ok, so, the first few yrs were good, but, then, the Betfair website, graduated.
I can’t remember exactly when, but, initially, you could only bet on static events. What the fuck does that mean ?
Well, a static event, would be something you could bet on, up till the time it started. Then the market would be closed on Betfair, and you would have to watch it unfold, along with your position, which you couldn’t change.
A dynamic event, or, an ‘in-running’ market, is a totally different animal. The fun only really starts, when actual play begins.
To give you an idea :
In the early days, pre-start of a Man U game, something like £200k might have been traded on the game, on Betfair, but an additional £500k was quickly the norm, for the ‘in-running’ portion.
Now, it’s not that unusual to see some soccer games go to £10m, but most trade £1-2m, if it’s a decent game. This is important for 2 reasons :
The prices pre-game are pretty much right, as 50,000 users have made the market efficient, to about 0.5% error.
But, in-running, especially, in marginal sports, where people have little knowledge, the market is often inefficient, and there is ‘value’ – the holy grail.
If you don’t understand value .. look it up.
In the early days, some abstract ‘in-running’ sports would have absurd inefficiencies, especially across international borders, so, in many tennis matches, different countries would have different people favourites, at different stages of the match (even before tennis alleged match fixing).
This was because pricing ‘in-running’ events was a new skill to be learnt, and it takes time.
Cricket is a fantastic sport for ‘in-running’ betting, especially the new T20 format, in which,respective chances of winning can change so much, within 3 balls.
Test match cricket is also great, especially when you get a weather variant thrown in (rain might be forecast for day 4, influencing the draw price).