I see no reason why this should be a draw. Apart from the heat, the pitch will be a good deal harder to play, IMHO, than Dubai. Have a small position against the draw, pre-game.
Will post screen shot of full position later. High St books, have 2/1, u could lay less on Betfair – small arb.
Also, 1.92 S.Africa seems ok to me, so have taken that.
(I will update thoughts on each test match, in the respective thread.)
The first screen shot is Betdaq, the second, Betfair. Keeping track of positions, over multiple accounts, can be tricky, and I normally use excel, to help.
On the evening of the test, current prices :
Day 1, session 2, and S.Africa 141-3, after being 3 down early. I don’t really like having a position where my side is batting, and I am long the batting side, short the draw, as the dynamic between the 2, is so tied. So, am reducing my S.Africa back, at 1.84 of so, for small profits, and topping up my draw lay, thou its hard to do so, as the market is not v deep/liquid. This may be because India are playing N.Zealand at same time, and all the Indian bookies are focussed on that.
After tea, SA 225-4
My position :
Pak +532 current price 10
SA +1250 current price 1.8
Draw-1576 current price 2.8
position is prob worth, £225
Close of Play – SA 311-5
SA +1350 current price 1.74
Pak +710 current price 14.5
Draw -1450 current price 2.78
Position worth about £300
Ist session, Day 2, and S.Africa sorta meandered along, putting on 75, for 2 wkts. The pitch did a lot first thing, but am hoping for quick wkts after lunch, or S.Africa accelerate, to score another 100 or so. Most likely, Pakistan will be batting, just before tea, one way or the other, and prices shouldnt/havent unchanged too much, before then.
I made no trades during the session. But draw price has shortened to 2.6, so position is worth a little bit less.
Just before Pak start batting, and the pitch looks v fair. The last session will be v important, but, as the astute amoungst you will have noticed, have reversed my position, (temporarily), as I think the draw will go shorter. If Pakistan lose early wkts, it wont be good, but thats the gamble
Close of Play, Pakistan 59/1.
Draw price has eventually flattened out, thou the early wkt wasnt great for the heart. Am now fully against the draw, at a decent average.
3rd day, at lunch, Pak 2 down, but, lost 2 quick wkts after. Draw dropped to 1.6x, so I laid some more, and have nice book now :
So, overall :
Book prob worth £500 or so.
Pak 181-4 .. am tinkering a bit, as cant resist laying sub 1.6x anything really.
Have gone more flat :
Betdaq book is the same, but Betfair is now :
That’ll do for now.
After Tea, Pak 261-4.
I have started laying draw again, sub 1.6x.
Betdaq position still same. Betfair now :
Overall, book now worth, £700
So, end of Day 3, Pakistan 317/6, 267 runs behind.
Overall position now :
Draw price looks low to me, and will no doubt lay some, at some point. For now, position is worth £800.
Day 4, after lunch, and I have let my position drift a bit. I backed S.Africa at 2.6 or so, last night, after Close of Play (COP), and when they got an instant early wkt, in the morning session, I should have taken profits, but was sleeping, after watching the NFL game. There just not enough hours in the day etc :
My position now – S.Africa 40-0, lead by 190, 132 overs left in game :
Pak +1100 current price 36.0
S.Africa +4100 current price 4.2
Draw – 1040 current price 1.36
Position now only worth £200 or so. Costly sleep.
Final position on game : Won £400, sorry no final pics.