4 yrs ago, Eng declared on 550 or so, batting first, and lost.
Adelaide is know to be a batting deck, and the draw will probably be 2.2 or so.
Opening odds, eve of end of 1st test :
I am accumulating a position, against Aus.
Bollinger and Harris have been added to squad, as likely replacements for Johnson and ??
The market hasnt moved v much – Aus drifting a fraction, as the draw is favoured :
Aus 3.9 (from 3.75)
Eng 3.8 (from 3.55)
Draw 2.06 (from 2.2)
I now have a decent position against Aus, which I will post pics of later.
Eve of the test :
Some weather forecasts have rain coming in for the last 2 days, especially on day 5.
Current prices (Johnson out, choose from 12 in the morning)
I am against Aus – and have backed the draw a little.
Eve of 2nd day, Eng 290/2, after dismissing Aus for 245.
Some rain may come in, Mon/Tues, and the pitch is really flat. I am against Aus, in all markets.
End of rain affected day 3, and Aus cant win. I think Eng will, if they get 4 clear sessions at Aus.
Am on morning of the last day – Aus 6 wkts left, 127 behind, with some rain about, but, probably clear till Tea.
Think Eng will win, but 1.67 is really skinny.
Test over, so quickly, I didnt have time to alter position (much), so will take these figs as final.
(For posterity, it absolutely hammered down, after Lunch. If Aus had batted till then, they would have escaped with a draw)