The Ashes, 3rd Test – Perth

England lead 1-0

Broad suffered stomach muscle strain, and has returned home.

Katich has achillies problem, and is unlkely to play in remaining games.

I expect at least 2 teams changes to Aus side for Perth :

Market is forming, at something like :

Aus 3.4

Eng 2.6

Draw 3.2

—————————————————————–

Friday, 6 days before game. Warne mentioned in dispatches, as being wanted to return. Cricket Australia would never include a 41 yr old, in their squad. It just looks too desperate, and doesnt do much for the future.

Squad announced : Bollinger/Doherty dropped. Little known spinner Beer added.

Current prices

Aus 3.1

Eng 2.8

Draw 3.1

Looks like they may play Johnson/Siddle/Hillfy/Harris/Hughes. Eng playing Victoria in 3 day match, and Monty/Bresnan got a wkt each. Aus attack looks potentially better, but, then, its hard not to be – they have only taken 9 wkts in 2 tests.

——————————————————-

Sunday, and 3 day game (kick-around), ended in a draw, with no real impact players coming thru for England. maybe in the light of this, there has been a steady and determined move for Aus.

Aus 2.86

Eng 2.80

Draw 3.35

I can understand this move, and so far, only have a small position with the draw.

——————————————————————

2 days before game, and move against the draw coninues. Comments from groundsman, saying there will be some green left on the pitch – hoping it will provide a result on day 4 or 5 etc.

Aus 2.74

Eng 2.66

Draw 3.85

The draw is getting to max level, IMHO, and Aus and eng very skinny. I have a small red book, as backed draw at 3.35 average.

——————————————————————

Eve of game – Aus havent announced team yet, but, rumours, Beer is not playing, leaving all seam attack.

Aus 2.74

Eng 2.68

Draw 3.75

—————————————————————

Eng win toss, and decide to bowl. I took a position with them, which I wasnt sure about, but worked out ok.

Aus do look a bit short on confidence – 270 or so may not be such a bad score.

Day 1 end positions : Betdaq

Betfair :

———————————————————

Thought there was little downside to laying the 1.67 Eng, but didnt expect the collapse, they finally succombed to.

Almost final figs :

Betdaq ;

-2k Aus – no pic .. sorry

Betfair

Net : Win £5500

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About Joe Stone

Professional Betfair Trader, specialising in in-running sports.
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